This weekend, we have a 13-fight card Milwaukee which is going to be the last UFC on FOX card on account of this brand new ESPN deal. We’re back to getting smaller prize pools with this event but there’s still good money to be won. The most important GPP is a $10 entrance with $15,000 to 1st place. Those huge GPPs with a wonderful high trophy are always my favourite contests to chase so I will be shooting some shots at that. Aside from that, I will adhere to my 3-entry max & solitary entry GPPs. I will also be picking up H2Hs throughout the week and I will get a good amount of play in cash games. Here are a Couple of plays I like for Saturday and my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of the week — Kevin Lee ($9,000)
The main event is nearly always the best fight to enter money games and stacking both fighters from a 5-round battle usually makes a lot of sense. I believe that you can stack the main event here too, but I believe Kevin Lee is your must play of both. He’s a -335 favorite and -135 ITD so if he wins he’s going to score highly and according to Vegas he’s a 77% chance of winning. In addition, he scored 164 DK points in his last fight so not only does he even possess a high floor, but he probably has the highest ceiling onto the card too. That is where I’ll be starting my money lineup this week.
GPP drama of this week — Jared Gordon ($8,600)
Following weigh-ins we saw a great deal of money come in on Joaquim Silva and this struggle is almost a PK battle on the gambling odds today. Usually when that occurs we see the ownership on DraftKings follow suit and also the underdog gains ownership due to the value. I believe Gordon’s possession will go down due to this and that is what makes him a good GPP play. Gordon strikes in the maximum pace on the card landing 6.68 sig strikes every minute. He lands 3.41 takedowns each 15-minutes. He doesn’t even require a finish to score 100+ points and that’s why I like him in this spot. I am not guaranteeing a win by any means, but when he can win then he should score well.
Underdog play of the week — Mike Rodriguez ($7,500)
Mike Rodriguez is $1,200 cheaper than Adam Milstead in this matchup, but he is just +115 in comparison to Milstead’s -135 gaming lineup. I adore the value we are getting there, and I believe Rodriguez wins this battle. I do expect him to be among the very well-known underdogs on the card, but it’s chalk I am willing to eat. IF Rodriquez does win then it’s probably going to be by knockout so not only could he have the win, but he’d score highly as well. I think if he does win this fight then he ends up on the 1st area lineup and he is my favourite underdog of the week because of this.
Fade of the week — Drakkar Klose ($9,300)
I am not fading Klose since I believe he loses, I am actually picking him to acquire a Unanimous Conclusion. I am fading him because he is $9.3k and with his fighting style that I don’t see him getting more than 10x that salary. If I’m making 20 lineups this weekend Klose will be in 0 of these. Klose has 3 UFC wins thus far in his career and he’s scored 63, 68, and 74 DK points in these 3 wins. When he scores around that area again in this particular fight, then pretty much kills your odds at winning a GPP as the other men because $9k range likely score higher and likely even over 100-points. That makes Klose my fade of this week.
If you’d like my own full-card DraftKings breakdown with investigation on every struggle, my private strategies & suggestions, and my selection outlook for every fight then you can discover that beneath the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker if you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link as well. I am 47-28 for +169.81un (+$16,981) because May 19th on Premium Plays. I’m also +75.37u the last 7 months!)